The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

A crisis has developed since mid-September over the transfer of the S-300 air defence system to Syria by Russia.

I have written two blog posts on the subject, the first of which discusses just what the Russians delivered to Syria, while the second emphasises the core problem - Russia's ever closer embrace of rogue states.

https://airlandbattle.wordpress.com/...-syria-russia/

https://airlandbattle.wordpress.com/...s-but-limited/

Dan

Re: The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

I thought the problem was Israel attacking Syria's strategic assets ..........
You say the S300's are located in a dangerous area - dangerous to who?
"Axis of Evil" - a bit dramatic, don't you think? Those in the middle-east would have the same label for the western powers continually bringing rebellions and war to their countries ........
And no, I am not a sympathiser. I just don't believe all the BS they tell us.
Peter

Re: The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

Somehow I detect strong smell of double-standards. For example, how come Iran and Syria are "rogue states" (rogue according to whom?) but Saudi-Arabia is not? I am not aware that Iranians or Syrians have used their foreign embassies as slaughterhouses for unpleasant journalists, for example. Or the hard fact that Syria under Bashar al-Assad has been the most Christian-friendly Arab nation in the area by far. Even Iran is better for its Christian minority than Saudi-Arabia. In fact, Saudis could handle the Middle Eastern asylum tourist problem on its own, yet nobody seems to ask that why Saudis are not welcoming their Islamic brothers in. Instead, the same people who are so keen to point out "rogue states" are perfectly happy to see e.g. England turning into a society in which basic democrartic rights like freedom of speech are supressed to appease certain throat-cutting minorities.

Re: The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

Guys

this is about postwar missile systems not Middle East politics.

Keep it focused.

Re: The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

I thought we were discussing the second blog Dan directed our attention to, headed by the attached, that ends with -
"the critical issue at hand is not the S-300, but rather Russia's growing alliance with the rogue regimes of Iran and Syria"
Peter

Re: The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

Dan,

Great work and very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

Cheers

Danny

Re: The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

Danny,

You are most welcome!

Re: The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

Just on your appreciation of the S-300 system on the deployment, my humble opinion is that your comment that this small deployment will be overwhelmed by a full Israeli or US attack is irrelevant.

Yes it will be overwhelmed in this case, but the last operation of this kind was launched in 2003 when Iraq was attacked. Since then the usual air operation is involving a small number of aircraft, and so even one modern SAM battery could be enough to counter such an attack, especially in our world where the loss of an aircraft will be seen as a big issue, not even to speak of the fate of the crew.

Still the past history has shown that a modern air force can sweep missile defences with relatively light losses, but it is more a political move than a military one. So the idea is to SHOW the batteries rather than hide them as will be more logical on a pure military level. By the way there is still the possibility that other hidden batteries are deployed.

But the most important part is the fact that these batteries are displayed just near Russian ones, and so any attack on a Syrian position may result in a serious incident with Russia. And that is probably the main reason that will stop the USA, and very probably Israel too, to attack them, or the targets they protect.

As for you second article on Russia joining the Axis of Evil, Russia is the only country in the world I can think of that invaded and annexed foreign territory (according to international law) in the current century. So if one country deserves to be called rogue state by the US, it is Russia. I don't see any difference in what Iran is doing in the area in the last years compared to what Saudi Arabia or the USA are doing. The terrorists that are active those days are rather based or supported by Saudi Arabian or Pakistanese networks, two US allies, than by Iran.

Best regards

Re: The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

Atlantic Charter, 2. clause:"territorial adjustments must be in accord with the wishes of the peoples concerned;". Crimean majority favoured the change of hands.

Re: The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

But still all NATO members, having signed this chart, have not recognized Russian take over of Crimea and Eastern Ukrain. I have not enough knowledge to know who is right or wrong on this case, I just describe the current international situation.

And the majority of Catalonia has voted to gain more autonomy in Spain and its political leaders have been accused of treason by the Spanish government without any country blaming them of not respecting the Atlantic Charter.

In the Middle East, applying this rule will probably see Iraq disappear or shrink a lot, with Shia lands going to Iran and Kurdistan becoming independent. I will be very very surprised to see it happen.

Re: The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

Thank you for your interest in the topic, Laurent. The main point that you made concerning the missile deployment is that it is designed to deter Israeli or US attack by creating the danger of a confrontation with Russia. That is superficially the case, but in fact the situation is rather more acute. Russia, by interposing its aerial defence systems between Israel and Iranian forces which are seeking Israel's destruction, is making it inevitable that over time Israel or other Western forces will be forced to attack. It is probable that there will be Russian military fatalities once such an attack takes place. Indeed, there is a precedent.

In 1970, the Soviet Union deployed the 18th Special Surface to Air Missile Division and fighter units to Egypt. These units suffered fatalities during Israeli operations, most famously when five Soviet MiG-21s were shot down and four pilots killed in Israeli Operation Rimon 20. At that time, Israel did not wish to continue the fighting, because the USSR was a superpower and the events were taking place relatively far from Israel's main population centres. Russia is much weaker than the USSR and the threat to Israel's civilian popualtion is much greater now, so Russia's deployment is more likely to invite an attack than to deter one.

As to the source of terrorism in the Middle East, this is a matter of publicly known facts, see https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/rm/287317.htm:

"Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. Period. It has held that dubious distinction for many years now and shows no sign of relinquishing the title.
...

Let me give you some numbers. This may sound hard to believe, but Iran provides Hizballah alone some $700 million a year. It gives another $100 million to various Palestinian terrorist groups. When you throw in the money provided to other terrorists, the total comes close to one billion dollars.

Let’s pause to consider that, because it bears repeating: The Iranian regime spends nearly a billion dollars a year just to support terrorism."

Re: The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

I won't discuss the numbers in your citation, but my translation will be that Iran is giving close to one billion dollars a year to organizations labelled as terror groups by USA and other countries.

Please go to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...idents_in_2018, you will find links for monthly lists of terrorists acts in the world, more than 2000 in this year alone.
NONE were done by the Hezbollah.
I have counted all attacks on Israel: 26, killing 12 people and injuring 70+. That is 12 too much, but that is far less than 1% of the total.

So Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism... with 1% of the terrorist activity possibly sponsorized by it...

And Iraq was full of terror weapons and had the 4th army in the world...

By the way, I thought the downing of a F-16 in February had slowed Israel raids on Syria, I was wrong, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel...rian_Civil_War.

Re: The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis
 

Laurent, that Wikipedia list is misleading. Iranian terrorism now involves primarily large-scale military and paramilitary operations by the terrorist organisations that it sponsors, not the sort of individual terrorist attacks that Wikipedia deems appropriate to list.

See description of Iran's activities at https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2017/282844.htm:

"In 2017, Iran supported various Iraqi Shia terrorist groups, including Kata’ib Hizballah. It also bolstered the Assad regime in Syria. Iran views the Assad regime in Syria as a crucial ally and Syria and Iraq as crucial routes to supply weapons to LH, Iran’s primary terrorist group ally. Through financial or residency enticements, Iran has facilitated and coerced primarily Shia fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan to participate in the Assad regime’s brutal crackdown in Syria. Iranian-supported Shia militias in Iraq have also committed serious human rights abuses against primarily Sunni civilians.…

Since the end of the 2006 Israeli-Lebanese Hizballah conflict, Iran has supplied LH with thousands of rockets, missiles, and small arms, in direct violation of UNSCR 1701. Iran has also provided hundreds of millions of dollars in support of LH and has trained thousands of its fighters at camps in Iran. Lebanese Hizballah fighters have been used extensively in Syria to support the Assad regime."

As for Israel's continuing air strikes against targets in Syria, the S-300 story is important because there have been no fully confirmed Israeli air strikes since Russia's declaration that it would transfer the S-300 to Syria, as of today. Israeli government sources have said anonymously that strikes continue, but there have been no accounts of these from the Syrian side, until a confused report of some explosions in southern Syria late on November 29. See some English language coverage in a local newspaper, by way of illustration https://www.timesofisrael.com/topic/syria-airstrikes/

Referring back to the issue of Russian air defences in Syria, I have become aware of an article written a month after my two blog posts referred to above, entitled "Russia Expands Its Air Defense Network in Syria" and written by Matti Suomenaro and Jennifer Cafarella with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Russia Team. These authors emphasised the difficulties that Russian air defences may pose, but they have also mentioned that Israel has already destroyed multiple air defence systems within Syria. Given the much greater capabilities of the United States, it is unlikely that the air defences now present in Syria will be able to significantly ihibit a future American attack.

Regards,

Dan