[tcolvin]

I have been thinking about an approach that might move us all closer to a consensus, and I would be interested in your responses.

We can all agree that the Air Staff, Air Ministry, RAF and Churchill failed to deliver on their original promise that the RAF could win the war for Britain by destroying German morale and will to continue without the cost of committing ground forces in battle. It was claimed to be the economic option.
But although their programme was revealed by events as bogus wishful thinking, BC has never lacked for defenders, including many on this board, whose mouthpiece surely is Richard Overy in this opinion piece; (Source: http://warbirdsforum.com/showthread.php?t=1334).
"Bombing: The Balance Sheet. The effects of the bombing campaign went far beyond the mere physical destruction of factories and dwelling-houses .... The bombing produced serious social dislocation and a high cost in terms of man-hours ..... Evacuation, rehabilitation and welfare provision were carried out on the largest scale in an economy struggling with serious manpower losses and cuts in civilian production. Bombing also encouraged a strategic response from Hitler which placed a further strain on the war economy by diverting vast resources to projects of little advantage to the German war effort.
The net effect of the many ways in which bombing directly or indirectly impeded economic mobilisation cannot be calculated precisely (my emphasis). But in the absence of physical destruction and dislocation, without expensive programmes for secret weapons and underground production and without the diversion of four-fifths of the fighter force, one-third of all guns and one-fifth of all ammunition to the anti-bombing war the German armed forces could have been supplied with at least 50% more equipment in the last two years of war, perhaps much more. In an environment entirely free of bomb attack the German authorities and German industrial managers would have had the opportunity to exploit Germany’s resource-rich empire in Europe to the full. In 1942 the air force had begun to plan the production of 7000 aircraft a month, yet at the peak in 1944 a little over 3000 were produced, of which one-quarter were destroyed before even reaching the front-line.
Bombing took the strategic initiative away from German forces, and compelled Germany to divert an ever-increasing share of its manpower and resources away from production for the battlefield. ........."

Overy's opinion is not supported by the British Bombing Survey; “In terms of overall production decrease resulting from the RAF area attacks, the US survey, based upon limited research, found that in 1943 it amounted to 9% and in 1944 to 17%. Relying on US gathered statistics the British survey found that actual arms production decreases were a mere 3% for 1943, and 1% for 1944. However they did find decreases of 46.5% and 39% in the second half of 1943 and 1944 respectively in the metal processing industries. These losses resulted from the devastating series of raids the Command launched on the Ruhr Valley at these times.” (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAF_Bomber_Command)

The evidence that strategic bombing had only marginal effect on arms production was predicted in Zuckerman's report on the bombing of Birmingham and Hull dated 8.4.1942 (source: 'From Apes to Warlords' page 405). His conclusions were misrepresented to Churchill by Lindemann. But Zuckerman's results were repeated in Germany, and negated the strategic bombing campaign.
His Summary of Conclusions;
1. Social Effects and Morale
a) The factor most affecting the population is the destruction of houses.
b) 35 people are bombed out for everyone killed.
c) Dwelling houses are destroyed by HE and not by fire.
d) Large towns have a high capacity for absorbing their bombed out population.
e) Other raid effects such as stoppage of water or gas have little effect on the population.
f) Steady employment and a high rate of wages are the major stabilising factors for the population.
(h) There is no evidence of breakdown of morale for the intensities of the raids experienced by Hull or Birmingham.
II. Production
a) Machine tools are rarely damage by HE but very extensively by fire.
b) Loss of production is caused almost entirely by direct damage to factories.
c) Factories are more seriously damaged by fire than HE. In Birmingham 30% of factories were damaged – 10% seriously (8% by fire and 2% by HE)
d) Most fires could have been prevented at the scale of fire attack encountered.
e) Indirect effects of raids on labour, turnover, health and efficiency are insignificant.
(f) The direct loss of production in Birmingham due to the raids was about 5% and the loss of productive potential was very small.
g) Transport activity is only partially interfered with and recovery is rapid in the absence of continuous raiding.
h) Docking was not interfered with and docking potential was diminished by about 10% in the raids on Hull.

It is surely up to Overy and those of his view to prove Zuckerman wrong and to quantify their Balance Sheet rather than just expressing an opinion.
I have quantified the balance sheet with respect to Wilhelmshaven. It is consistent with Zuckerman's report and shows a significant negative imbalance to Britain between the costs and benefits of strategic bombing. Those who want more on Wilhelmshaven can read my article published in Issue 148 of After The Battle Magazine.

Wilhelmshaven was throughout the war a priority target, being BC's first target (on 4/9/1939), and the first target in Germany attacked by 8USAAF (on 27/01/1943). The disaster of the Battle of Heligoland Bight in December 1939 drove BC to abandon day-bombing for night-flying. Fahey's analysis showed the total cost of bombing Germany was £2,911 per ton of bombs dropped. The 19,048 tons of bombs dropped on Wilhelmshaven, therefore cost £55.5 million. I show below that the cost of military damage in Wilhelmshaven was only £8.3 million. Extrapolating the Wilhelmshaven experience to the whole of Germany shows that while BC cost Britain £2.78 - £3.5 billion, it caused a maximum of £0.5 billion to the German military economy. This was not a viable method of waging war. Several cheaper and more effective methods can be listed.

Wilhelmshaven was the closest major German military target to the airfields of BC and 8USAAF. The target presented a clear image on H2S. Built of non-inflammable Victorian brick, it had an efficient fire-fighting service with plenty of water - there were no uncontrolled fires. Wilhelmshaven contained valuable military targets concentrated in the small area of the Bauhafen shipyard, including Tirpitz (cost £15.2 million) that was fitting out until 9/3/1941 and attacked unsuccessfully by BC in 17 raids with 281 sorties. Wilhelmshaven was the home port of Scharnhorst (cost £12 million) and a destroyer flotilla until 1941. 29 U-boats worth £370,000 each were launched from 16/11/1940 to 17/6/1944, of which only 2 were destroyed by 8USAAF and none by BC. Some 90 units of Section 2 of the eight sections that were assembled in Bremen and Hamburg into Type XXI Electric Boats, (each complete boat costing £483,000) were built in Wilhelmshaven without loss. Production in Wilhelmshaven was never interrupted except for periods of an hour or two when a raid was in progress. Loss of production in the shipyard was much less than the 5% in Birmingham reported by Zuckerman, with negligible destruction of productive potential. The shipyard functioned fully after the war until it was dismantled and shipped to Russia as reparations.

The area of Wilhelmshaven and the Jade was the second most defended locality in Germany after the Ruhrgebiet. The cost of LW Fliegerhorsts at Jever and Nordholz are excluded from the balance sheet. Outside Wilhelmshaven, Kriegsmarine Nord HQ in Sengwarden and the Aurich arsenal were never bombed.

In attacking Wilhelmshaven, BC and 8USAAF:
- despatched 5,668 sorties (BC 3,580 and 8USAAF 2088)
- lost 146 bombers (BC 97 and 8USAAF 49)
- lost 856 aircrew killed (BC 406 and 8USAAF 450)
- dropped 19,048 tons of bombs (BC 13,676 and 8USAAF 5,372)
- killed 452 Germans on the ground (358 civilians and 94 military)
- wounded 1,125 Germans on the ground.
NB: nearly twice as many aircrew died in the air as Germans on the ground.

Bombing Wilhelmshaven cost £8.3 million, comprising;

• • Loss of production of 2% of a total production due to disruption from air raids and the threat of air raids. The value of war production in Wilhelmshaven was £41.1 million, comprising Tirpitz (£15 million), Type VII submarines (£10.7 million), Section 2 of Type XXI submarines (£5.4 million) and sundry shipbuilding and repair (£10 million). The 2% loss of production was £0.8 million. Note that Birmingham's loss of production was 5%, but Wilhelmshaven had bomb-proof bunker air-raid shelters for every inhabitant close to home or place of work, which minimised disruption, and fires were quickly extinguished n the shipyard.
  • Damage estimated at £0.01 million (£10,000) was caused to the cruiser Emden on 4/9/1939 with 11 sailors killed and 30 wounded when Blenheim N6189 flown by Lightoller of 107 Squadron was shot down and crashed into it.
  • U-769 and U-780 (Type VII), costing RM4.4 million each, were damaged on the stocks beyond repair by 8USAAF on 27/1/1943. The maximum total cost, assuming they were completely ready for launch, was RM 8.8 million = £0.7 million.
  • Mariensiel arsenal was destroyed by luck on 11/02/1943 in probably the biggest explosion ever caused by BC. The arsenal was over 3kms downwind of the aiming point in the shipyard and it was blowing a NE gale. The explosion had no impact on military operations because the destroyed ordnance comprised surplus shells for the much diminished surface fleet and sea mines. Flak munition and current naval munitions were dispersed in a dispersed arsenal at Aurich that was never identified or bombed.
  • On 11/06/1943 two out of nine oil storage tanks were destroyed by 8USAAF. No record exists of how much oil they contained or its value, which is guessed at £0.2 million.
  • The Flakship Medusa was badly damaged in Jade Bay on 19/4/1945 by 15 RP Typhoon fighter bombers of 2TAF, killing 22 and wounding 41. These casualties are not included in the statistics as they were not caused by BC. The wreck was towed into Wilhelmshaven and decommissioned. The ship had been built in the early 1900s as a Gazelle Class cruiser costing £0.4 million but had no military value when it was destroyed because Allied air raids had ceased.
  • The cruiser Köln, which cost £3 million in 1930, was sunk in the Bauhafen by 8USAAF in their last raid on 30/03/1945. But the cruisers' guns were fired later against the Polish Armoured Division in April 1945 so its insignificant military value was not affected by its sinking.
  • Also sunk on 30/03/1945 was the Fleet auxiliary Drachenfels which cost perhaps £0.4 million in the late 1930s but had no military value when it was sunk. A training submarine and sundry lighters and tugs were also sunk, but had negligible military value.
  • Likewise the destruction of the liners Tanganjika and Monte Pascoal in air raids had minimal military value, although they were used as naval accommodation ships. The liner Nyassa was damaged, but functioned as Naval HQ after the destruction of the HQ buildings. 36,000 buildings were destroyed in the air raids, but few had military value.
  • Wilhelmshaven, the Jade Bay and Schillig Roads were defended by 2 Marineflakbrigade of 5,000 -7,000 troops (male and female) equipped with 60 searchlights, 6 early warning Freya radars, 92 units of 105-mm Flak, and 20 units of 128mm Flak in 24 batteries and two Flak ships all with Würzburg gun-laying radars. The price of an 88mm Flak 18 was £2,822. Assuming the 105-mm cost twice the 88-mm, the 128-mm cost three times as much as an 88-mm, the searchlight cost one quarter of an 88-mm, and the Freyas and Würzburgs cost the same as an 88-mm, then the total equipment cost of 2 Marineflakbrigade was about £1.0 million. The cost of the equipment's concrete emplacement, of ship conversion and of communications is guessed at £0.5 million. Ammunition expended is guessed at costing another £0.5 million. An unknown proportion of 2 Marineflakbrigade comprised women and Kriegshilfseinsatz der Jugend bei der Kriegsmarine, popularly known as Flakhilfer such as Pope Ratzinger, who were recruited from those born between 1926 – 1929. These men and women were not diverted from war work. The total Flak cost is estimated at £2.0 million.

1. Smokescreen generators were installed around the town in 1942. Actual cost is unknown, with a guess of £0.1 million.
2. A balloon barrage was installed in 1940 with perhaps 30 balloons. Actual cost is unknown , but guessed at £0.1 million
3. A decoy site was built on reclaimed marshes to the North of Wilhelmshaven at unknown cost. Also large numbers of reflectors were built and installed to try and disguise the port's H2S signature. The total cost is guessed at £0.2 million
4. Air raid shelters were built for the entire population of 120,000 at a cost of RM34 - 50 million = £4.2 million. The population actually declined to 80,000 by war's end so there was plenty of spare bunker room.

Tony