Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainer
According to the K-Amt, a conventional building program for the type XXI would have completed the first U-boat not earlier than November 1944 and these were expected to reach operational status in late 1945 or early 1946. Dönitz knew that he could not wait so long and made the right decision to switch the manufacturing method that managed to built 120 type XXI U-boats before the war ended - keep in mind that the production figure would have been at least a third higher without the Allied bombing. The conventional building program would have completed no more than 30 type XXI U-boats until May 1945 if everything went as planned...
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Rainer. I cannot question your conclusion, but I would point out that it differs markedly from the source I was using, which was Peter Lienau:
http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-050.htm
Lienau states that OKM removed their business from the K-Amt because their projected production rate of 20/month was too low, and not because 20/month was too late, which is the reason you give. Doenitz's decision to go for large numbers required a revolutionary production method that failed. None of the 119 Type XXIs produced in June 1944 put to sea operationally (except for one) - see the quotation from the USSBS Report Number 92 quoted in my reply to Rod.
Lienau also states that the proposal to design the Type XXI was made in 1941, but not acted on until 1943, presumably because of complacency. I think you deny this, and I do not say you are wrong, but only that you and my source, Lienau, differ and I cannot judge which of you is right. In fact you seem to agree with this by writing that "The U-boats had already practically lost the convoy battles in late 1941", and yet Doenitz did not see the danger signal.
Tony