Gabor, you state:
Quote:
“But if 3 planes crashed in the same battle in a small area, I cannot select the one mentioned in somebody's claim. Same, if the planes were shot out in the reported time and area, but they actually crashed somewhere else at a remote location... I cannot tell which victim received the bullets from this specific pilot.
Let's pick an example. What September 27, 1944 (the 'Kassel-mission') was for the Liberators of the 8. USAAF, 445 BG, - January 4, 1945 was the same for the IL-2s of the 17 VA, 136 ShAD, 210 ShAP. This day in the battles around Bajna, Hungary - they lost 7 IL-2s in dogfights and one additional to AAA. These 8 lost planes (S/N: 10967, 10987, 11425, 12052, 12054, 304836, 1888603, 18704106 and 18853106) were about one third of the regiment at that time! (The 17 VA, 136 ShAD, 989 ShAP lost another two IL-2s in dogfight in the same area: S/N: 10430 and 11413, while the 17 VA, 136 ShAD, 715 ShAP lost one (S/N: 11511) to AAA and S/N: 11536 probably to fighters. 17 VA, 189 and 306 divisions also lost IL-2s, mainly to AAA, few to fighters.) The battle area exactly matches Lipfert's 169th and 170th claim. Since I am not aware of more than 9-10 IL-2 claims for the day in the area, I would say that Lipfert's claims are honest and true. But because of the too many options, I cannot tell which planes and crews. Some actually crashed en route to their home base, so it would be even more difficult to match the actual opponent(s).”
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If it’s not too much trouble, may I make the following suggested summary of LOSSES vs. CLAIMS to help historians asses the probability of a claim being valid (i.e., 75% or 56%).
Re 27 Sep 44 Mission Il-2 Losses/Claims:
Losses: 9
Plus to fighters + 2
Plus to AAA Vs. 9-10 German Claims = Almost certain victory –unable to match claims to exact victim”
Here are several
hypothetical postings (This is
not for 27 Sep 44 Mission!):
7
Plus to fighters + 3
Plus to AAA = 6 German Claims + 2 Hungarian Claims + 2 AAA Claims
7
Plus to fighters + 3 to AAA = 6 German Claims + 0 Hungarian Claims + 2 AAA Claims
7 to fighters + 3
Plus to AAA = 6 German Claims + No known Hungarian Claims + 2 AAA Claims
Once again Gabor, many thanks.