[bearoutwest]

Perhaps what you gentlemen are not in agreement upon is not whether the RAF was on the verge of defeat, but rather what is meant by the term “on the verge of defeat”?

If local air superiority over the south-east of England was the key objective, then if it was achieved by the Luftwaffe sufficiently for airborne landings to take place; this would have been a big game changer. Once this scenario occurs, then the RAF are no longer fighting a defensive fighter-oriented battle, but the RAF light bombers (Battles, Blenheims, Hudsons, etc) would be thrown into the fight as well as the Spitfires and Hurricanes***. The lack of available airfields (even for a week) in the south-east, would require the RAF fighters and light bombers to deploy from further afield in 10 Group and 12 Group. The Luftwaffe Bf109s and 110s would still be operating from French bases, but over the parts of the south-east of England where they had a reasonable time over target. Thus the effectiveness of the Jagdwaffe would still be reasonable high, but the RAF fighter and light bomber forces would have taken a significant reduction in effectiveness.

Although, under these circumstances, the overall Battle of Britain and the invasion of the British Isles was not a foregone conclusion, the RAF could be considered to have suffered a defeat in losing local air superiority over the invasion zones.

I think it not unreasonable to draw the conclusion that had the Luftwaffe attacks on 11 Group airfields not been curtailed in favour of bombing raids on London, then local air superiority may have been achieved by the Luftwaffe over the south-east sufficiently for airborne landings to have taken place.

Regards,
...geoff




***Before anyone mentions it, I am aware that the Battle, Blenheim and Hudson light bomber squadrons were already in action with night raids on barge harbours, convoys and bomber airfields. However, the rate of loss would take a step-change upwards, if it were necessary to throw them in to daylight raids on airborne drop zones and landing beaches.