Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Philips
To Harri: I understand the point made, and appreciate the effort to come to a quantification of "hit probability". I was not convinced by the result of that effort. The fact that the Germans evolved to low Vo large caliber aircraft armament most likely has to do with bombers being their main targets, as you said, but there may be no direct connection with the achievement of hits here, and more with delivering of the energy levels that could destroy a bomber. That meant shooting with the highest amounts of High Explosive as technology allowed at the time. Not because the bombers were slow, but because more energy on target was needed to bring them down.
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I believe that there is fairly direct connection between probability of the hit and muzzle velocity. Janacek's point is just one simple approach based on unknown movement of the target, while we can can disagree on amount of this effect, it is still a valid point. Other advantages being quite clear as well; less room for aiming error.
The Germans had high muzzle velocity weapons, like the MK 103, but these were too bulky for smaller aircraft. And regardless the speed, the bombers were still much larger and less agile targets than fighters so hitting them with low velocity weapons was much easier.