[Nick Beale]

Many years ago, I borrowed a couple of library books by Edward H. Sims about fighter combat and pilots. He analysed a lot of actions and pointed out that when numbers get above a certain level, casualties do not increase correspondingly. He suggested this was partly because everyone was too busy trying to avoid a collision.

It seems to me (luckily I've never had to test my theory) that 10 aircraft may not be at such a disadvantage if they attack a formation of 100 and that is the only action during their mission. Their exposure to hostile fire will last no longer and many of the defenders may never achieve a firing position.

If they have to try and fly a mission where they encounter several smaller groups of hostiles at intervals then their chances of casualties increase: fuel and ammunition get low, pilots get tired, earlier material damage is compounded and more of the enemy get the chance to take a shot.

Having read a small sample of Ultras from the Jagdkorps II in Normandy campaign (which was refought in the recent thread) my impression was that Allied superiority manifested itself as a near-constant presence – i.e. the Luftwaffe was often lucky to get to its target (or off the ground) without running into opposition. The refrain seems to have been “task not carried out owing to …”

It wasn’t so much 15 aircraft versus 100 but 15 versus 20 and then another 20 and then another 20 and so on.