The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis

[Dan History]

Originally Posted by Laurent Rizzotti

will stop the USA, and very probably Israel too, to attack them

Thank you for your interest in the topic, Laurent. The main point that you made concerning the missile deployment is that it is designed to deter Israeli or US attack by creating the danger of a confrontation with Russia. That is superficially the case, but in fact the situation is rather more acute. Russia, by interposing its aerial defence systems between Israel and Iranian forces which are seeking Israel's destruction, is making it inevitable that over time Israel or other Western forces will be forced to attack. It is probable that there will be Russian military fatalities once such an attack takes place. Indeed, there is a precedent.

In 1970, the Soviet Union deployed the 18th Special Surface to Air Missile Division and fighter units to Egypt. These units suffered fatalities during Israeli operations, most famously when five Soviet MiG-21s were shot down and four pilots killed in Israeli Operation Rimon 20. At that time, Israel did not wish to continue the fighting, because the USSR was a superpower and the events were taking place relatively far from Israel's main population centres. Russia is much weaker than the USSR and the threat to Israel's civilian popualtion is much greater now, so Russia's deployment is more likely to invite an attack than to deter one.

As to the source of terrorism in the Middle East, this is a matter of publicly known facts, see https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/rm/287317.htm:

"Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. Period. It has held that dubious distinction for many years now and shows no sign of relinquishing the title.
...

Let me give you some numbers. This may sound hard to believe, but Iran provides Hizballah alone some $700 million a year. It gives another $100 million to various Palestinian terrorist groups. When you throw in the money provided to other terrorists, the total comes close to one billion dollars.

Let’s pause to consider that, because it bears repeating: The Iranian regime spends nearly a billion dollars a year just to support terrorism."

[Laurent Rizzotti]

I won't discuss the numbers in your citation, but my translation will be that Iran is giving close to one billion dollars a year to organizations labelled as terror groups by USA and other countries.

Please go to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...idents_in_2018, you will find links for monthly lists of terrorists acts in the world, more than 2000 in this year alone.
NONE were done by the Hezbollah.
I have counted all attacks on Israel: 26, killing 12 people and injuring 70+. That is 12 too much, but that is far less than 1% of the total.

So Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism... with 1% of the terrorist activity possibly sponsorized by it...

And Iraq was full of terror weapons and had the 4th army in the world...

By the way, I thought the downing of a F-16 in February had slowed Israel raids on Syria, I was wrong, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel...rian_Civil_War.

[Dan History]

Originally Posted by Laurent Rizzotti

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...idents_in_2018, you will find links for monthly lists of terrorists acts in the world, more than 2000 in this year alone.
NONE were done by the Hezbollah.

Laurent, that Wikipedia list is misleading. Iranian terrorism now involves primarily large-scale military and paramilitary operations by the terrorist organisations that it sponsors, not the sort of individual terrorist attacks that Wikipedia deems appropriate to list.

See description of Iran's activities at https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2017/282844.htm:

"In 2017, Iran supported various Iraqi Shia terrorist groups, including Kata’ib Hizballah. It also bolstered the Assad regime in Syria. Iran views the Assad regime in Syria as a crucial ally and Syria and Iraq as crucial routes to supply weapons to LH, Iran’s primary terrorist group ally. Through financial or residency enticements, Iran has facilitated and coerced primarily Shia fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan to participate in the Assad regime’s brutal crackdown in Syria. Iranian-supported Shia militias in Iraq have also committed serious human rights abuses against primarily Sunni civilians.…

Since the end of the 2006 Israeli-Lebanese Hizballah conflict, Iran has supplied LH with thousands of rockets, missiles, and small arms, in direct violation of UNSCR 1701. Iran has also provided hundreds of millions of dollars in support of LH and has trained thousands of its fighters at camps in Iran. Lebanese Hizballah fighters have been used extensively in Syria to support the Assad regime."

As for Israel's continuing air strikes against targets in Syria, the S-300 story is important because there have been no fully confirmed Israeli air strikes since Russia's declaration that it would transfer the S-300 to Syria, as of today. Israeli government sources have said anonymously that strikes continue, but there have been no accounts of these from the Syrian side, until a confused report of some explosions in southern Syria late on November 29. See some English language coverage in a local newspaper, by way of illustration https://www.timesofisrael.com/topic/syria-airstrikes/

Referring back to the issue of Russian air defences in Syria, I have become aware of an article written a month after my two blog posts referred to above, entitled "Russia Expands Its Air Defense Network in Syria" and written by Matti Suomenaro and Jennifer Cafarella with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Russia Team. These authors emphasised the difficulties that Russian air defences may pose, but they have also mentioned that Israel has already destroyed multiple air defence systems within Syria. Given the much greater capabilities of the United States, it is unlikely that the air defences now present in Syria will be able to significantly ihibit a future American attack.

Regards,

Dan