US Strategic Bombing Survey No59 - a questionable statement about 1-seat fighters production

[ArtieBob]

Dear Andrey,

I have been pretty busy lately and I also cannot locate the scan files of the documents I have discussed with you.
My wife and I will be out of the USA for a few months and during that time, I will not have access to material other
than what I have on my computer. So what I am doing is sending a summary sheet which gives month by month totals of
Bf 109, FW 190 as reported in the C-Amt Monatsmeldung and the totals distributed as reported the Flug-
zeugverteilung. Hopefully that will give you the basic information you have requested.
1944 1945
Production Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Bf 109 Neubau 932 715 804 1006 1055 1120 1237 1430 1511 1503 1312 1086 1266
FW 190 Neubau 383 301 573 690 841 554 752 930 855 678 997 1248 982
Neubau(Schlacht) (1) 390 515 511 536 413 294 (1) 367

Me 262 Neubau 5 19 52 101 125 160
Distribution
Bf 109 Neubau 642 634 629 685 970 1151 1105 926 1105 1488 1279 996 1189 862 615
Rep. 338 176 221 232 257 398 412 445 412 326 348 378 309 48 14
FW 190 Neubau 204 160 305 531 410 552 751 862 751 671 990 906 843 443 219
Rep. 162 49 68 130 72 144 179 159 179 79 210 181 195 21 6
Neubau(Schlacht) 93 (3) 282 252 322 390 511 472 499 403 293 311 365 303 384
Rep.(Schlacht) 11 (3) 32 16 46 67 73 58 54 113 168 99 154 89 88

Me 262 Neubau 51 78 114 148 212 231
Me 262 Rep. 1 3 17 14 11 8

Not included: Me 163, Ta 152, and He 162 as these came very late and in small numbers, but if you really want them,
I have incomplete data for them.

My opinion, since the Production and Distribution numbers for a given type and month are never the same, they must
come from different source documents. However, the order of magnitude stays about the same, and although all
quantities are subject to many kinds of errors, my sense is they are the best we probably have available. I eventually
will compare this information against some other raw data I have and see if it appears there are inflated production
numbers during late war.

Best Regards,

Artie Bob


Note (1) Jan-May and Dec 44 FW 190-Fighter and Schlacht Nuebau production totals combined.

Note (2) When posting, columns will not remained aligned. To align numbers, start from right side. C-Amt rows (production)
end in Jan 45, Flugzeugverteilung (distribution) rows end in Mar 45.


Note (3) Data Missing.

[Andrey Kuznetsov]

Dear Art,

thank you very much!

What month does the Me262 production start in your table? The columns have shifted, so it's not clear.

Originally Posted by ArtieBob

Not included: Me 163, Ta 152, and He 162 as these came very late and in small numbers, but if you really want them,
I have incomplete data for them.

Me 163, Ta 152, and He 162 are also interesting.

Merry Xmas!

Best regards,
Andrey

[edwest2]

An observation if I may. Assuming the word "inflated" actually applies, a few thoughts. Those units waiting for new and replacement aircraft were ignored? There were no requests for updated information? I find it hard to believe that commanders in the field were given "inflated" numbers followed by greatly reduced deliveries. If I were in their shoes, I would contact anyone and everyone to get to the bottom of this.

[Dan History]

Those who might wish to take the discussion further with Andrey should note that he is Andrey Yaroslavovich Kuznetsov (Андрей Ярославович Кузнецов), a Russian naval historian from Nizhny Novgorod.

He is the author of "The Big Landings. The Kerch'-El'tigen operation" (Большой десант. Керченско-Эльтигенская операция). This is a history of the Soviet Union's largest amphibious operation of the war, the bloody and failed attempt to rapidly seize the Kerch peninsula in late 1943.

He also co-wrote "The Black Sea Fleet during the Great Patriotic War. Short course of combat operations" (Черноморский флот в Великой Отечественной войне. Краткий курс боевых действий). As a gauge of the level of insanity already prevalent in Russia in 2015, when the latter book was published, seven years before Russia's invasion of all of Ukraine in 2022, the "short course" in the title is a clear allusion to the "History of the All-Union Communist Party (Bolsheviks): Short Course", the central text of Stalinist party propaganda, see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Communist_Party_of_the_Soviet_Union _(Bolsheviks)

I do not know whether the authors or the publisher chose the title, but little more needs to be said, in either case.

It appears that the same author has dabbled in fiction, of a particular kind. His novel, "Death at the Victory Parade" (Смерть на Параде Победы), features officers of the NKGB (People's Commissariat of State Security, the Soviet equivalent of the Nazi Reich Security Main Office (RSHA)) saving Dear Comrade Stalin from an Abwehr assassination plot, set at the post-war victory parade in Moscow. The text of this book, along with the others mentioned above, is available at flibusta.info/a/77274

Mr. Kuznetsov is also a blogger, see akuznetz.livejournal.com He has written a multi-part analysis of the various different types of Luftwaffe loss reports. Part four in this series, writing which led to his interest in USSBS Report 59, "The Defeat of the German Air Force", can be read at akuznetz.livejournal.com/5195.html

Beware! Livejournal is Russian-owned, and its servers are in Russia. Discretion is strongly advised when viewing any Livejournal page. For some very basic details, see:

"In December of 2016, practically overnight and without any word, the LiveJournal servers were relocated from California to Russia. Which has quite a few far-reaching effects. For instance, LiveJournal would now be compelled to hand over data when requested by the state, a request it could refuse (and did) while in California. Many users understandably feared the worse."

thehistoryoftheweb.com/postscript/whatever-happened-livejournal/


As an aside, the man with whom Andrey Kuznetsov co-wrote the history of the wartime Black Sea Fleet is one Miroslav Eduardovich Morozov (Мирослав Эдуардович Морозов), a former political officer in the Soviet / Russian RVSN (Strategic Missile Force) and then long-time official historian at the Red Banner Institute of Military History of the Russian Ministry of Defence (Ордена Красной Звезды Институт военной истории Министерства обороны). That does not make Mr. Kuznetsov himself an official historian, but the two gentlemen worked together on at least one other occasion, when they helped the Russian Northern Fleet's search for Soviet submarines lost during the Second World War. As reported by Russia's official newspaper, see rg.ru/2016/05/20/reg-szfo/gidrografy-severnogo-flota-otpraviatsia-na-poiski-pogibshih-submarin.html

[Andrey Kuznetsov]

Originally Posted by Dan History

the "short course" in the title is a clear allusion to the "History of the All-Union Communist Party (Bolsheviks): Short Course", the central text of Stalinist party propaganda

This is as clear allusion as the "Short Course in Physics", "Short Course in Theoretical Mechanics" etc. Thanks to the pirates, the book is publicly available for free, and anyone can try to find "Stalinist party propaganda" or other kinds of propaganda there.

Originally Posted by Dan History

It appears that the same author has dabbled in fiction, of a particular kind. His novel, "Death at the Victory Parade" (Смерть на Параде Победы), features officers of the NKGB (People's Commissariat of State Security, the Soviet equivalent of the Nazi Reich Security Main Office (RSHA)) saving Dear Comrade Stalin from an Abwehr assassination plot, set at the post-war victory parade in Moscow.

I'm not the author, and haven't read this book.
I don't write pulp fiction.

Originally Posted by Dan History

Beware! Livejournal is Russian-owned, and its servers are in Russia. Discretion is strongly advised when viewing any Livejournal page.

I still haven't thought about where the server is located. It is impressive that you, knowing about the great danger of visiting livejournal, still took the risk to do so.
"Beware!" ... oh my god!

Miroslav Eduardovich Morozov is my friend and an excellent historian, the real historian.

You have written a long text that draws a vague negative background, but haven't written what conclusion should be drawn from this.

[Dan History]

Oh, the wonders of the Internet! It makes it possible to read a historian writing from Russia, the modern-day equivalent of Nazi Germany, calling an official Russian military historian "my friend and an excellent historian". This on day 675 of Russia's invasion of the entirety of Ukraine.

For those with a knowledge of spoken Russian, here is a link to a video of Mr. Morozov, the "excellent" official historian, now retired from direct employment by the Russian Defence Ministry, giving a talk on the subject of "the components of America's missile defence: prospects and capabilities" (Об элементах американской ПРО: перспективы и возможности.) March 15, 2022. youtube.com/watch?v=PUFXtGLGuUk

This chat took place three weeks into Russia's invasion, long before American Patriots and other NATO air defence systems were delivered to Ukraine, so Mr. Morozov was anticipating events. He was not quite anticipating just how many Russian missiles would be shot down by these systems, but then Russia's entire invasion has been beset by a rather difficult relationship with objective reality.

Enough of this Russian nonsense and bilious hatred of Ukraine and the West, back to the subject at hand.

A rather more useful wonder of the modern Web is the accessibility of primary sources. A three-volume series of documents covering the Luftwaffe's strength and losses from September 1943 through to the end of October 1944 is now available for download. I used these documents in my study, and they contain much more information than just summary loss data, as the series title would suggest. See the links below:

Materialverluste.- Flugzeuge.- Einsatz alle Fronten.- Monatsmeldungen. Bd. 1. Sept. - Dez. 1943. RL 2-III/944.
invenio.bundesarchiv.de/invenio/direktlink/00025cbd-a067-430c-b54a-8973c83a1a89/

Bd. 2. Jan. - Mai 1944. RL 2-III/945
invenio.bundesarchiv.de/invenio/direktlink/18a7407a-8409-4cb4-8088-d94a6d7a0ad7/

Bd. 3. Juni - Okt. 1944. RL 2-III/946
invenio.bundesarchiv.de/invenio/direktlink/02d0744e-fc07-4b39-b941-65774ee10af9/

These document were also used by Olaf Groehler in an old East German article, which Mr. Kuznetsov recently mentioned on this forum. With the original documents to hand, the article is of little interest, but some of the data from it was presented in summary form by Don Caldwell on his website dedicated to Jagdgeschwader 26, see "Luftwaffe Aircraft Losses By Theatre September 1943 - October 1944"
don-caldwell.we.bs/jg26/thtrlosses.htm


Lynn, you might find another document to be particularly useful. A breakdown of Luftwaffe flight hours by type and sub-type for the January to September 1944 time-frame:
Flugzeuge: Flugzeugbestand, Flugbetrieb.- Betriebsmeldungen und Statistiken. Jan. - Sept. 1944. RL 2-III/974. invenio.bundesarchiv.de/invenio/direktlink/dcaf1a27-6209-4d2a-92a8-54eae6ea38ea/


The Koller statistics of Luftwaffe sorties in 1944 and early 1945, which Mr. Kuznetsov referred to above, have not yet been digitised, but will be available in the future at the following link:
Einsatz fliegende Verbände Deutschland, Feindeinflüge Reichsgebiet, alle Fronten.- Erfolge, Verluste personell und materiell.- Zahlenmäßige statistische Übersichten - Handakte Major Büchs. Dez. 1944 - Febr. 1945, gesamt 1944. RL 2-III/1198.
invenio.bundesarchiv.de/invenio/direktlink/edad4f51-a972-46d6-a934-3844cbc2e5e9/

It would be most interesting to see such information on Luftwaffe sorties for other periods of the war, but I have never encountered it, with the exception of small fragments. Have other forum members seen it? Of course, Mr. Kuznetsov will not acknowledge that the Luftwaffe flew more sorties in the East than elsewhere in 1944-45 because it was largely suppressed by Allied air power in the West and Mediterranean. This general pattern was established significantly earlier than 1944, of course. We all know why the Luftwaffe stopped almost all daylight bomber sorties over Britain in 1940.

By now, Russia's inability to acknowledge, let alone honestly analyse, much of the history of the Second World War surprises nobody. Much more interesting is how people in the free world understand the subject. A great deal of rather low-quality literature has been published emphasising the supposed inefficiency and even ineffectiveness of Allied air power during the war, particularly strategic bombing. A sober analysis tells a very different story, which is something I will soon write about, provided a break from other work will be forthcoming!

[Nick Beale]

Anyone who wants to air their views on any present-day nation’s ideological shortcomings or the objectivity of perspectives on its history is welcome to do so away from this forum. But while you’re here, please stick to the original topic.

[edwest2]

Perhaps the following book will shed additional light on the air war in the East. It will be out in a month or two depending on your location.

https://www.casematepublishers.com/9...alins-falcons/

Usual disclaimer,
Ed

[Dmitry Volodin]

Originally Posted by edwest2

Perhaps the following book will shed additional light on the air war in the East. It will be out in a month or two depending on your location.

https://www.casematepublishers.com/9...alins-falcons/

Usual disclaimer,
Ed

Description sounds like same propaganda but now in opposite direction. Air war wasn't so simple like black-white picture.

[edwest2]

It all depends on the documents. There are other books covering the Eastern air war.