South Ossetian conflict

[Ruy Horta]

Off topic, but that's why we have this sub forum.

Complicated situation, but for the time being I'm of opinion that it actually is a Georgian (or perhaps more exact Saakashvili's) attempt to escalate the conflict in their long term advantage by drawing in US/Nato forces in the region.

I find current news a little too biased in favor of Georgia, in a way that is not warranted by the historical background and current events. There seems to be somewhat of a flip flop in the making. I'm curiously following how the spin is developing.

Also I find it amusing that Russian air raids outside the direct conflict zone are criticized, as everyone must know that air force doctrine and support would dictate such operations. Again this is a sign of very arbitrary reporting.

Current weak (world) economy has me worried, as this type of conflict is perfect to draw the attention away from problems closer to home. Also those who wish a return to the cold war in terms of military spending must be chomping at the bit to turn this into something bigger.

Just some thoughts, let the flames begin (but hopefully not literally).

[PeterVerney]

Have to agree with you Ruy.
Thought while Putin and Bush were together in Beijing yesterday it was a perfect opportunity for someone to knock their heads together and get a little sense in. Both sides are too trigger happy.

[Kari Lumppio]

Originally Posted by Ruy Horta

Also those who wish a return to the cold war in terms of military spending must be chomping at the bit to turn this into something bigger

Hello!

I hope that you are not restricting this thinking only to so called Western countries. Russian military funding was cut much more severely than, say NATO-countries.

If this crisis ends with the message that Russia is entitled to use military forces against sovereign countries in the name of Russian/"Russian" enclaves in them, then I am more than worried. Now at Georgia - Ossetia the situation and history somewhat supports Russian actions, but I sure hope this will not became a modus operandi for future.

Cheers,
Kari

[Juha]

Ruy
I see its disturbing that a superpower bombed towns of its small neighbour. But as You live thousands of kms away of Russia your POW is understandable.

Juha

[Ruy Horta]

Juha,

Superpowers bombing towns of small countries isn't unique to Russia.

Isn't it acceptable if the press agencies call it collateral damage, while attacking legitimate military targets?

That Russia has its own agenda isn't unique either (call it national interests, to coin a popular phrase), but that doesn't mean Georgia doesn't have such an agenda of its own and is willing to take some gambles to achieve their own goals. It is easy to point at Russia as the aggressor, but IMHO this case just isn't as cut and dried.

But I guess your "Weltanschauung" will lead you to a different conclusion.

[Juha]

Ruy
I'm not claiming that this is black and white question, but Georgia is an independent state and Russia has been very strict in its oppinion on the rights of sovering states to do what they want inside their borders when it had suited to it. And its handling of its own regions which have had separistic intentions has been very harsh, remember for ex Chechnia and bombing of Grozny. And I have not hear that Georgia has attacked Russian territory, have you?

Juha

[Ruy Horta]

Again, it is arguable wether or not these two autonomous regions during the Soviet era, should automatically have been part of the new sovereign state of Georgia.

At least the Ossetians and Abkhazians don't seem to think so, but we in the west thought otherwise.

The right of recognition is often arbitrary and mostly dictated by national interests. I don't see any difference in this regard between east or west, north or south for that matter. Rebel, separatist, freedom or independence fighter. It probably boils down to which side has to offer the best deals.

Perhaps I'm too much of a cynic.

As for your second point, at least according to the Russians (and Saakashvili's own comments on CNN) Georgian troops opened fire first with a relatively heavy (rocket) artillery barrage. Not on Russian territory, but against Russian troops (or peacekeepers in their point of view).

I don't want to press my views and it is clearly too early to tell how this will play out, but my instinct is not to jump in support of Saakashvili.

[Juha]

Ruy
if you own pre-1991 maps on Caucasus, looking at them you'll see that both South Ossetia and Abkhazia Autonomous Regions belonged to Georgia Socialist Soviet Republic. Now when Baltic states got back their independence they wanted their 1939 borders back but Russia insisted (and eventually got its will accepted) that no, only accepted borders were those of the former Socialist Soviet Republics. Now "grateful" new Socialistic Republics Estonia, Latvia, cannot recall was Lithuenia also, had ceded some of their eastern areas to Mother Russia in 40s and to Russia these new Soviet Union time internal borders were only acceptable solution not 1939 internationally, also by SU, accepted borders. And of course in Georgia's case Russian view is different.

But as you wrote it is too early to draw definite conclusions and Georgia has acted at least thoughtlessly. If one is smaller, it's not clever to step on Russian's toes, one is to get a hefty kick, at least, for such a behavior.

Juha

[Nokose]

I hope this conflict can be settled soon. Since Evgeny Velichko is now in the Russian army that bothers me also about this conflict.

[Jan Bobek]

I am Czech, it is August 2008 - 40th anniversary of invasion into Czechoslovakia. Therefore if Russian army goes with tanks over some border, you can imagine what are my first emotions. The picture of Russian army as friendly force and peace keeper was not part of education I got from my parents (married in 1968) small example: when I was small boy, I was prohibited by my parents to wave at Russian soldiers when they were driving around.

I appreciate Juha´s comments on similarities with Chechnia and Grozny, but I try listen to the news carefully (Russian, European and US) it looks like:

- there was some kind of small clash several days ago, but both parties (Georgia and Russia) agreed on cease of fire.
- suddenly, at the end of this week, Georgia opened artilery shelling (unguided rockets) at Tskhinvali city - residential area and also at area with peace-keeping soldiers from several countries including Russians. Think about it ... shelling of city with inhabitants.
- the attack was done at the beginning of Olympic games ... hardly a coincidence.
- Russian Army entered the area to push Georgian army back. Russian a/c bombed Georgian targets and IMHO tried to hit military and logistics targets and did not hit too much residential buildings - otherwise Georgian media would make publicity of such bombings.
- Russian media say (could be fake, exaggerated or correct, who knows - it´s media war as well) - about 1600 residents dead, Georgian tanks rolling over women and children, Georgian soldiers throwing hand-grenades into cellars with people, group of people locked in a house and burned live etc. ... there is even an American citizen as eyewitness in Russian news.

My impression - Georgia is agressor, but the overall situation is very much in favour of Russia. Georgia is now having zero chance to enter NATO, and US got cold shower from Kremlin. I bet that Putin was waiting for similar opportunity. Looks like Russian side was well prepared for both - war with weapons as well as media war.

Friend of mine told me today that this is somewhat similar to Falkland war. If the similarity works - let me guess - current Georgian goverment will not last long.

But bloody hell, who cares. There were hundreds or maybe thousands of simple people alive over there a week ago. And they are now dead. Again same story. Politians and army big guys have their games and simple people are in sh..