US Strategic Bombing Survey No59 - a questionable statement about 1-seat fighters production

[lritger]

Ed, there is no better way to describe the primary situation facing German production facilities in late 1944 other than "logistical problems". To satisfy your request though, I offer the following from page 1152, reel 12, frame 6580 of the Milch notes - a verbatim translation of the stenographic notes of the 9 Dec 1944 Rüstungsstab meeting:

"Dr Holzknecht reports on the expected slump in the output of 109, 190 and 152 as a result of transport difficulties due to insufficient urgency. Decision by HDL Saur as to whether program breaks can be accepted or whether transportation can be brought forward at the expense of other production."

So yes, "logistical problems" would certainly be a proper term to describe the myriad problems facing German factories and subcontractors in late 1944.

As an aside - an important one - Andrey's response prompted me to look back through the entirety of R3/1926 and I think I may have found the answer to the question of why those Nov/Dec 44 numbers are so far removed from reality. It's complicated, and required cross-referencing a number of other documents, but the short version is this: Andrey's proposal that they may represent PROJECTED completion numbers may be correct, based on other information in the 9 Nov 1944 Rüstungs-Notprogramm and a separate document found in T77-0032 covering projected fuel use requirements for 1945. And if it is correct, whomever put that chart together on page 88 of R3/1926 should be slapped. I'm working on a post which ties all this together... more soon.

Cheers,

Lynn

[edwest2]

Lynn,


Thank you for your reply. I don't wish to add further complications but other means had to be employed to continue aircraft assembly. I submit that as control of production was ceded to the SS, then operations like Bodenplatte occurred in 1945. Saur was only one component in a changeover in duties created by a situation of great urgency. This occurred at a time when it was assumed the Luftwaffe was starved of fuel and supplies. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that synthetic fuel and lubricants were available.

American G.I.s thought they'd be home by Christmas, 1944. They also did not expect the Wacht am Rhein situation.

Finally, I only mentioned "logistical problems" for the reason of providing context to your readers. Sometimes, people hear terms like this and don't really understand them.


Best,
Ed

[Andrey Kuznetsov]

Hello Ed,

Originally Posted by edwest2

The use of terms like "logistical problems" should be avoided and replaced with what can be shown in contemporary documents.

Undoubtedly, a lot of logistical problems were caused by air raids. It's obvious.

Best regards,
Andrey

[Andrey Kuznetsov]

Hi Lynn,

Originally Posted by lritger

I'm working on a post which ties all this together... more soon

That's very interesting! I'm looking forward.

Cheers,
Andrey

[lritger]

Good morning gents,

Well, the more I look at other production planning and delivery documents from late 44/early 45, the less I understand about the Nov/Dec 1944 figures in R 3/1926, pg 88. Andrey's suggestion that they could possibly be projected delivery figures is probably the best assumption, but in order for that to be true, we would have to ignore all previous precedent in how Luftwaffe production targets were documented.

The entire report deals with the potential impact of a 25% cut in production targets across the entire German armaments industry for the Rüstungs-Notprogramm of Nov 1944, as a result of material shortages; a header sheet for the report and subsequent Anlagen is found on page 72, dated 9 Nov 44. On page 83 we find a line concerning the Bf 109; it lists the production deliveries in July, Aug, and Sept and they all match perfectly with the report on page 88. So far, so good. It also notes the decreased monthly delivery target from 450 (Altes Soll) to 300 (Neues Soll) monthly... the intent was to run out production of the 109 in favor of the 262 and Ta 152.

However, a separate report dated 30 Nov 1944 which projected fuel needs for 1945 lists something entirely different (see attached). This document, found in NARA T77-0032, lists a monthly "Ausbringung" (output or delivery) for all Luftwaffe types still in service as of that date, and the projected delivery totals in that document seem to be much more in line with previous monthly deliveries; Dec 44 shows an original projected count of 1426 Bf 109s, and a 25% reduction changes that target to 1070. January 45 went from 1850 to 1388, Feb 45 went from 1860 to 1395, etc. All of those numbers fit with the production numbers from the first half of 1944, and also show a gradual decrease through 1945 as 109 production is wound down in favor of more effective aircraft.



So I don't know if the projected figures in R 3/1926 were intended simply as a "trial balloon" or what... nothing seems to fit. The numbers for other aircraft in Nov and Dec 44 are entirely reasonable - 35 Ar 234s each month, 325 Me 262s in Nov and 500 in Dec (this makes sense in the context of what they were hoping to achieve), 17 Ju 388s in Nov and 20 in Dec... those all seem reasonable. So why in the world would the 109 and 190 counts be so wildly out of line with everything else? I don't know that we will ever get a good answer to this, but there are enough other documents out there to state that R 3/1926's projections for 109s in Nov/Dec 44 would have to be considered outliers.



But we have to at least consider whether the info in this doc somehow made it down to the troops, even in the vaguest of terms. (Yes, I know it says "Geheime Reichssache"). If we look at the distribution list for this report, no one from the Luftwaffe is on it! Look at R 3/1926 pg 74 and 75... the distribution list goes to OKW (Oberkommando Wehrmacht), GenStdH (Generalstab des Heeres), and so on. Seems like we can't entirely discount the possibility that Army leadership said "Hey guys, just hang on, we're going to be seeing thousands of Messerschmitts and Focke Wulfs ANY DAY NOW", setting an expectation which could never be met. (Again, this is merely a hypothesis based on the facts we know)

Anyways, it's a very interesting topic- Andrey, I appreciate you bringing this up!

Cheers,

Lynn

[Andrey Kuznetsov]

Hi Lynn,

thank you a lot for the pointing to T77-0032. A very interesting roll.

Originally Posted by lritger

On page 83 we find a line concerning the Bf 109

page 86, not 83

Since the document is dated 9.Nov.44, it is clear that the figures for November-December were projected indeed.

October 1944:
1642 Bf109 accepted by Luftwaffe (or, more accurately, so many Bf109s went through Lw.Gen.Qu, there could have been more in total) - according to RL2-VI/202;
1836 Zellen of Bf109 were produced, according to R3/1926.

So the 2,350 Zellen planned for Nov.44 don't seem like such a fantastic number. Undoubtedly, in reality they were produced much less, but other German plans during this period also came true poorly.

Originally Posted by lritger

Seems like we can't entirely discount the possibility that Army leadership said "Hey guys, just hang on, we're going to be seeing thousands of Messerschmitts and Focke Wulfs ANY DAY NOW"

I think at that time the role of the last hope (game-changer) was performed by the mythical Wunderwaffe, and not by the countless fighters that were about to appear. But this, of course, is just a guess.

Cheers,
Andrey

[ArtieBob]

Dear Andrey,

I have been pretty busy lately and I also cannot locate the scan files of the documents I have discussed with you.
My wife and I will be out of the USA for a few months and during that time, I will not have access to material other
than what I have on my computer. So what I am doing is sending a summary sheet which gives month by month totals of
Bf 109, FW 190 as reported in the C-Amt Monatsmeldung and the totals distributed as reported the Flug-
zeugverteilung. Hopefully that will give you the basic information you have requested.
1944 1945
Production Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Bf 109 Neubau 932 715 804 1006 1055 1120 1237 1430 1511 1503 1312 1086 1266
FW 190 Neubau 383 301 573 690 841 554 752 930 855 678 997 1248 982
Neubau(Schlacht) (1) 390 515 511 536 413 294 (1) 367

Me 262 Neubau 5 19 52 101 125 160
Distribution
Bf 109 Neubau 642 634 629 685 970 1151 1105 926 1105 1488 1279 996 1189 862 615
Rep. 338 176 221 232 257 398 412 445 412 326 348 378 309 48 14
FW 190 Neubau 204 160 305 531 410 552 751 862 751 671 990 906 843 443 219
Rep. 162 49 68 130 72 144 179 159 179 79 210 181 195 21 6
Neubau(Schlacht) 93 (3) 282 252 322 390 511 472 499 403 293 311 365 303 384
Rep.(Schlacht) 11 (3) 32 16 46 67 73 58 54 113 168 99 154 89 88

Me 262 Neubau 51 78 114 148 212 231
Me 262 Rep. 1 3 17 14 11 8

Not included: Me 163, Ta 152, and He 162 as these came very late and in small numbers, but if you really want them,
I have incomplete data for them.

My opinion, since the Production and Distribution numbers for a given type and month are never the same, they must
come from different source documents. However, the order of magnitude stays about the same, and although all
quantities are subject to many kinds of errors, my sense is they are the best we probably have available. I eventually
will compare this information against some other raw data I have and see if it appears there are inflated production
numbers during late war.

Best Regards,

Artie Bob


Note (1) Jan-May and Dec 44 FW 190-Fighter and Schlacht Nuebau production totals combined.

Note (2) When posting, columns will not remained aligned. To align numbers, start from right side. C-Amt rows (production)
end in Jan 45, Flugzeugverteilung (distribution) rows end in Mar 45.


Note (3) Data Missing.

[Andrey Kuznetsov]

Dear Art,

thank you very much!

What month does the Me262 production start in your table? The columns have shifted, so it's not clear.

Originally Posted by ArtieBob

Not included: Me 163, Ta 152, and He 162 as these came very late and in small numbers, but if you really want them,
I have incomplete data for them.

Me 163, Ta 152, and He 162 are also interesting.

Merry Xmas!

Best regards,
Andrey

[edwest2]

An observation if I may. Assuming the word "inflated" actually applies, a few thoughts. Those units waiting for new and replacement aircraft were ignored? There were no requests for updated information? I find it hard to believe that commanders in the field were given "inflated" numbers followed by greatly reduced deliveries. If I were in their shoes, I would contact anyone and everyone to get to the bottom of this.

[ArtieBob]

Andrey,


I have tried several times to edit my post with regard to column alignment and it just doesn't work (just did another attempt). Follow the rules in note(2). Using the Me 262 as an example, take the number on the right and that will be January 45 for production and the number on the right will be March 45 for distribution. Think about it, there was no production output for Me 262s early in 1944, so those are the blank months.



Ed,


It was probably not so simple for operational units to compare production to what was in the field, distribution in late wartime Germany was probably difficult to track, going in both directions.


ArtieBob