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  #1  
Old 26th May 2005, 04:53
carpenoctem1689
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What if Japan....?

What if instead of Japan attacking the US at pearl harbor, they diverted theyre fleet and airforce, and available ground forces towards the russians? I certainly beleive that the long range G4m and the zero could have done some serious damage to tagrets 900 miles inland of the soviet union, and that the IJN could have reaked havoc against the soviets. Carrier based bombers, fighters, and battleships could attack coastal targets, and targets in northern russia. Land based bombers in china and manchuria could reach far, far into the mother land. Granted campaigns were raging in china, and manchuria at one point, but without facing the US, japan had the power to at least make an attempt at this. When the soviets moved production facilities from its western front, they would have put them within range possibly of japanese bombers and ground forces. Yes, japan had very poor tanks, and theyre infantry werent winter specialists, but if they attacked along with germany, they might have crippled russia before the harsh winter could hamper them, and result in theyre own stalingrad. They were timid because of previous defeats yes, but that doesnt mean they couldnt win. They got resources in manchuria, and air bases to launch air craft, and theyre navy could crush an soviet resistance. At this point, japan and the soviets had a peace treaty in terms, so the soviets would not be fully prepared, and in this area had little air force, and what they had was equipped with obsolete fighters and bombers, that would have probably been crushed on the ground in the intial surprise bombings. Please post comments to this, id love to hear them.
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Old 26th May 2005, 13:11
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Re: What if Japan....?

The scenario you alude to was in fact a prime concern of Stalin's and the Soviet High Command. Japan and Russia had fought a brief, but savage, battle in 1939 known as the Nomonham Incident. Even after June 1941 Russia continued to hold valuable troops in the South in case Japan took the opportunity to attack Russia. Only after Japan struck south against the British, Dutch and American colonial powers did the Soviet High Command breath a sigh of relief.

The Japanese Army also saw Russia as the main enemy, and several plans existed for the invasion of Russia. It was only in early 1941 that the Japanese High Command finally settled on striking south against the Western powers that Army planners changed their focus.

Had Japan struck north into Russia, from both Manchuria and Japan itself, instead of south against the Colonial powers, a whole different ending of WWII may have come about.
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Old 19th November 2005, 04:26
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Re: What if Japan....?

An initial attack into Manchuria didn't make any sense for the Japanese. They knew their main adversaries would end up being the Americans and the Brits anyways, "also knew they would end up being at war with them eventually", so why tie up your forces in Manchuria?

There is some argument for Manchuria being "resource rich" but it was second in importance to the oil rich British colonies in S/E Asia. Doubly so after the American oil embargo!

Besides Japan was 100% dependant on imports for its war industry. To leave their extended sea lanes vulnerable to the powerfull Brit and American navys would have been madness. The Japs had two options open to them in 1941. #1, Was to give up their dreams of empire. #2, Was to attack the American Pacific fleet, hopefully crippling it enough for them to get a few years to shore up their Empire, eventually getting a peace on their terms. Manchuria was on the short list but it wasn't a main objective.
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Old 10th April 2006, 19:51
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Re: What if Japan....?

Rich - you are right. The Japanese had to have oil. Period. Had to neutralize the Brit and American Navy to secure it in SE Asia... and had to have secure supply to finish China, much less attack Russia.

Had the Japanese negotiated a favorable settlement with US and Britain, then Russia could have been next... but not until the energy issue was solved.

Another interesting question would have been armor and anti armor against the Soviets. The Germans didn't fare well and they had the best of both categories

Last but not least is the incredible supply chain issue to support their troops should they have tackled Soviet Union from SE.. bad move all around.
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Old 10th April 2006, 20:54
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Re: What if Japan....?

The only what if might have been an attack bypassing any US assets, which would have exposed their flanks from two sides. The risk might have been worth it, if the US public remained in favor of neutrality.

IMHO America would have declared war sooner or later in this scenario (according to Daniel Ford policy in China was one of increasing involvement anyway).
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Old 11th April 2006, 15:53
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Re: What if Japan....?

They'd already been hammered by the Russians - another try would have brought the same result. Maybe not as easy, because the Japanese had improved their air power compared to the Russians, but the army was still outclassed. Good tank country, Manchuria.

The British did not have any oil-rich colonies in SE Asia. The oil was with the Dutch. The British had rubber. And tea.

The Americans had an emotional attachment to China because of years of attempted missionary activity. They would have come around to military action against Japan had the oil stranglehold failed - not that I think it would have done. Japan had to strike south or abandon years of expansion. Not an option, in their way of thinking.
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Old 14th April 2006, 12:43
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Re: What if Japan....?

Japanese forces in Manchukuo were thoroughly thrashed by Zuhkov's tank formations in the undeclared border war of Khalkhin Gol in August 1939. the Japanese not only lacked decent tanks, they thoroughly lacked any understanding of how to use them, much as they did not know how to use submarines. Japan was terrified during the war of triggering conflict with the Soviets and concealed the battle of Khalkhin Gol from Hitler.

Japan did not go to war just for the hell of it.

Japan was forced by USA to attack pearl harbour because of a US naval oil blockade of Japan from July 1941. Japan used it's last reserves of oil to attack Pearl, Malaya, Borneo and Indonesia.

Carpenoctem1689, the whole reason for Japan entering the war was to obtain oil, but attacking the Soviets was never an option in Japanese minds. They were terrified of the Soviets.

Aircraft have an important role in modern warfare, but they cannot hold territory.
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Old 14th April 2006, 12:58
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Re: What if Japan....?

Japan was never forced to attacking US assets.

They might have gone south, without attacking any US assets, directly towards the NethEI, to capture the oil resources they needed.

Problem however would remain on their flanks, roughly: British in the West and South, Americans in the North and East.

Second option would have been an attack on both British and Dutch, but still bypassing the Americans.

Certainly this would have had a significant impact on American resolve to curb the Japanese, the case would have been far less personal.

Could the war have been more effectively waged if America had been drawn in more gradually? I think so, at least the chances of facing the old pacific fleet in a true naval engagement the Japanese craved for would have been more likely.

OTOH, during the whole early campaign the Japanese had to stretch their forces to the limit, all by a strict time table. Having a wild card US fleet on the loose would have seriously effected their operational freedom.

Would the US have entered hostilities at some stage, almost certainly, but that's another matter.
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Old 14th April 2006, 13:09
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Re: What if Japan....?

Quote:
Originally Posted by drgondog
Another interesting question would have been armor and anti armor against the Soviets. The Germans didn't fare well and they had the best of both categories
It is arguable if the Germans always had the best in terms of armor and anti-armor compared to the Soviets, in many cases the reverse might be more accurate.

The Germans made a mistake relying too much on their armored spearheads and neglecting to give them sufficient infantry support.

Armor should not be used to attack enemy strong points, but find weakspots and use mobility to cut deep into enemy territory - flanking strongpoints.

But it needs infantry support to hold territory.
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Old 14th April 2006, 13:23
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Re: What if Japan....?

USA, Britain and the free Dutch Navy formed a joint task force in the area to blockade and prevent supply of oil from Borneo and Sumatra in mid 1941. My father was on a tanker called the MV Royal Tiger when Japan attacked Malaya and was witness to the oil blockade.

Roosevelt had effectively strangled japan's economy and from the point of view of the Japanese, they felt they had no other choice. Admiral Yamato who planned the pearl harbour attack foresaw that unless the US Navy was crippled in the opening shots of the conflict, Japan would never win.

USA had significant forces based in the Philappines straddling the trade routes to Indonesia. It was not possible to conceive of taking the oil fields by force and leaving US forces intact.

It is worth noting that the Japanese plan for attacking Pearl Harbour was based upon "War plan Orange" developed by Lt Col John A Lejune USMC and Lt Col Earl H Ellis USMC circa 1932.

This "Opn plan 712" also called for the knocking out of the Panama Canal. A dream Japan clung to throughout WW2 with it's efforts to bomb the Gatun locks. Japan almost secured support from Germany to ship dismantled Stuka dive bombers to Colombia in 1943 for an attack on Panama Canal.

Japan was clearly hemmed in and being cut off from strategic supplies in 1941 and whether we approve of Japan's actions or not, ask any Japanese historian and they will tell you that they viewed the United states as the aggressor in 1941.

Last edited by PlaneKrazy; 15th April 2006 at 00:06.
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