The S-300 missile system in Syria - two posts discussing the crisis

[Dan History]

Originally Posted by Laurent Rizzotti

will stop the USA, and very probably Israel too, to attack them

Thank you for your interest in the topic, Laurent. The main point that you made concerning the missile deployment is that it is designed to deter Israeli or US attack by creating the danger of a confrontation with Russia. That is superficially the case, but in fact the situation is rather more acute. Russia, by interposing its aerial defence systems between Israel and Iranian forces which are seeking Israel's destruction, is making it inevitable that over time Israel or other Western forces will be forced to attack. It is probable that there will be Russian military fatalities once such an attack takes place. Indeed, there is a precedent.

In 1970, the Soviet Union deployed the 18th Special Surface to Air Missile Division and fighter units to Egypt. These units suffered fatalities during Israeli operations, most famously when five Soviet MiG-21s were shot down and four pilots killed in Israeli Operation Rimon 20. At that time, Israel did not wish to continue the fighting, because the USSR was a superpower and the events were taking place relatively far from Israel's main population centres. Russia is much weaker than the USSR and the threat to Israel's civilian popualtion is much greater now, so Russia's deployment is more likely to invite an attack than to deter one.

As to the source of terrorism in the Middle East, this is a matter of publicly known facts, see https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/rm/287317.htm:

"Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. Period. It has held that dubious distinction for many years now and shows no sign of relinquishing the title.
...

Let me give you some numbers. This may sound hard to believe, but Iran provides Hizballah alone some $700 million a year. It gives another $100 million to various Palestinian terrorist groups. When you throw in the money provided to other terrorists, the total comes close to one billion dollars.

Let’s pause to consider that, because it bears repeating: The Iranian regime spends nearly a billion dollars a year just to support terrorism."