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  #21  
Old 23rd November 2015, 21:22
Brian Brian is offline
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Re: Just how would you defeat ISIS?

Hi guys

I've just seen a headline that states 'China declares war on IS'.

See my earlier post!

Cheers
Brian
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  #22  
Old 23rd November 2015, 22:45
Richard T. Eger Richard T. Eger is offline
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Re: Just how would you defeat ISIS?

Dear Brian,

touché!

Regards,
Richard
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  #23  
Old 23rd November 2015, 23:02
Paul Thompson Paul Thompson is offline
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Re: Just how would you defeat ISIS?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard T. Eger View Post
What Cairo speech are you referring to Paul?

Also, while you gave a technical answer as to the use of leaflet releasing equipment, what hasn't been answered is how effective was this in WW II and what techniques from that war as to what the leaflet says were most effective?

As for all the accumulated knowledge gained from our membership of WW II strategy, I'm a bit frustrated that more have not joined in on the conversation. Is it really all about who shot down who and no strategic thinking? Theo Boiten, Larry deZeng, where are you?

Regards,
Richard
Dear Richard,

How easily one forgets Here is a mention of Obama's Cairo performance from a male donkey (jackass in US English) in a very left-wing news magazine - http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-...eeches-tragedy .

I did answer that the leafleting could not possibly have been effective in the face of the Gestapo and Geheime Feldpolizei. You might have heard of the 'White Rose' group and the posthumous distribution of their message by Allied leafleting - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21521060 . It needs not to be mentioned that this led to no significant change in German morale. If you want to know more about German reactions to leaflets, you can have a look at the 'Meldungen aus dem Reich' collection.

On the wider strategic questions, I have tried repeatedly to emphasise that air power must be used on a large scale and with a high intensity. Clearly, this hasn't sparked the attention of too many people
What we have at the moment is a rather minor parody of the Second World War, see here that the current raids on undefended oil trucks have somehow been named after the Ploesti raid of 1943 - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34906011 . There is, of course, copious leafleting going on simultaneously. Allow me to point out that both the attacks on oil infrastructure and the deployment of leaflets are essentially tactical decisions, while you said that you wanted to discuss strategy.

Regards,

Paul
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  #24  
Old 23rd November 2015, 23:10
Paul Thompson Paul Thompson is offline
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Re: Just how would you defeat ISIS?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
I've just seen a headline that states 'China declares war on IS'.
Dear Brian,

The reason that I provide links in my posts is to support my points with factual evidence. Could you do the same in this case?

Since we are discussing historical parallels, let me remind you that there were British (and Frenc) defence talks with the USSR in 1939 in what are similar historical circumstances. These talks very nearly ended with this - https://suite.io/paul-iddon/66t6285 . Meanwhile, there isn't too much ground for enthusiasm about Chinese air or naval intentions - http://www.navytimes.com/story/milit...hina/18789539/ .

A thought experiment might be appropriate. If British taxpayers do not want to increase the UK's defence budget, how would you react if you were a member of the Chinese government?

Regards,

Paul
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  #25  
Old 24th November 2015, 03:11
Richard T. Eger Richard T. Eger is offline
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Re: Just how would you defeat ISIS?

Dear Paul and Brian,

I Googled Brian's claim and it is verified. See:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...-after-6862200 amongst other items.

Okay, I've looked at the article on President Obama's Cairo speech. As I promised Nick and John, I will not go into the trap of political discussion. Enough said.

As for the supposed ineffectiveness of leaflets or subterfuge in WW II, there was one incident at the end of the war of Allied misdirection that, when the war actually ended, caused many receiving the supposed official surrender notice to question its voracity. Surely, there are incidents that affected the ability to conduct warfare, such as the judicious use of information obtained through Ultra. So, let me expand my "leaflet" idea to anything along the lines of information/misinformation that helped win the war for the Allies. For that matter, there well may have been effective use of such by the Third Reich against the Allies.

As for your claim Paul of no affect on the German population, just why were there repeated attempts on Hitler's life if everyone was happy with their lot?

Regards,
Richard
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  #26  
Old 24th November 2015, 04:48
Werwolf Werwolf is offline
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Re: Just how would you defeat ISIS?

Use their own ideology against them, after all historically ideologies are proven to be poor armor.

1 Go for the head, to be named caliph one must comply with a series of requisites and there have the believe that they will only twelve(?) caliphs. Kill enough of them to disprove their claim. People can rationalize anything but this could give them pause.

2 Attack their incoming. The caliphate has the responsibility to comply with certain social duties like welfare and healthcare for everyone. If this responsibilities are not meet the caliph lose any legitimacy.

3 They want the apocalypse and it is easy to bring it to them. They are waiting for a mayor battle (one that they can refuse) at certain Syrian town. If a coalition brings troops there they are obliged to attack. They can be as much as 200,000 combatants but they lack any modern armament and heavy equipment.
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  #27  
Old 24th November 2015, 12:41
Paul Thompson Paul Thompson is offline
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Re: Just how would you defeat ISIS?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard T. Eger View Post
I Googled Brian's claim and it is verified. See:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...-after-6862200 amongst other items.

Okay, I've looked at the article on President Obama's Cairo speech. As I promised Nick and John, I will not go into the trap of political discussion. Enough said.

As for the supposed ineffectiveness of leaflets or subterfuge in WW II, there was one incident at the end of the war of Allied misdirection that, when the war actually ended, caused many receiving the supposed official surrender notice to question its voracity... let me expand my "leaflet" idea to anything along the lines of information/misinformation that helped win the war for the Allies. For that matter, there well may have been effective use of such by the Third Reich against the Allies.

As for your claim Paul of no affect on the German population, just why were there repeated attempts on Hitler's life if everyone was happy with their lot?
Dear Richard,

What the articles say is very different from the screaming headline. The only susbtantive Chinese quote provided is as follows: "Xi Jinping said: 'China will strengthen cooperation with the international community, resolutely crack down on violent terrorist operations that devastate innocent lives and safeguard world peace and security.'" None of that constitutes a 'declaration of war', whatever that may involve when a terrorist organisation is the enemy. To address the point directly, there is a possible parallel with the Spanish civil war, where Stalin did send his army and air force, but for purposes very different from those declared by his Western supporters. See this link for the genesis of the Soviet air component, among other things - http://www.gutenberg-e.org/kod01/kod14.html .

You are welcome to ignore the Cairo speech if you wish. It did have direct consequences for air power, specifically the suspension of US F-16 and Apache deliveries to Egypt just as the current Sinai conflict began.

By expanding the discussion regarding leaflets to information/misinformation as a whole, you are completely changing the terms of the discussion. Disinformation is of course of essntial importance in war and there are many examples of its success. I do not recognise the ULTRA story as you describe it, but I believe Martin Pegg may be working on this at the moment. It had been contemplated that the Allies might be forced to issue the surrender orders to the Germans themselves - http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/ETO/Surrender/ECLIPSE/ .
In operations against ISIS, disinformation is usually employed by the US and alllied forces to sow doubt as to the exact nature of the information available to them. As an example, see the report of a raid in Syria this May, where the details of the intelligence obtained are carefully obscured by vague phrases. There is an operational security aspect of this, of course, but disinformation is also an important consideration - http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/16/mi...-isis-us-raid/ .

I did not at any time claim that the German population was 'happy', indeed such a claim would be intolerably vague. The number of attempts on Hitler's life, especially those with any reasonable chance of success, was limited when seen in the context of a 12 year dictatorship which initiated a World War. The German population was largely quiescent, that it was what I claim and it would be very difficult to deny it. There was no equivalent inside Germany to the Ukrainian UPA or Baltic 'Forest Brothers', which fought Soviet military and paramilitary units for some years from 1944 onwards.

Regards,

Paul
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  #28  
Old 24th November 2015, 13:10
Brian Brian is offline
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Re: Just how would you defeat ISIS?

Hi guys

Turkish fighters shoot down Russian jet!!

I'm off to join the Home Guard!!

Cheers
Brian
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  #29  
Old 24th November 2015, 14:02
Paul Thompson Paul Thompson is offline
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Re: Just how would you defeat ISIS?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian View Post
Turkish fighters shoot down Russian jet!!
Dear Brian,

So far, this is just the latest among several incidents that have occurred during the civil war. See a list of the most prominent ones below:

A Turkish RF-4ETM Phantom II reconnaisance aircraft was shot down by a Syrian SA-3 or SA-24 surface-to-air missile battery in June 2012 - http://defensetech.org/2012/06/22/tu...wn-near-syria/

A Syrian Mi-17 Hip-H helicopter was shot down by Turkish F-16s in September 2013 - http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...98F0K920130916

A Syrian MiG-23BN Flogger-H fighter-bomber was shot down by Turkish F-16s in March 2014 - http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-ne...own-syrian-mig

A Syrian Su-24M Fencer-D bomber was shot down by an Israeli Patriot surface-to-air missile battery in September 2014 - http://www.airforce-technology.com/n...eights-4383291

A USAF MQ-1B Predator reconnaisance UAV was shot down by a Syrian SA-3 surface-to-air missile battery in March 2015 - http://www.airforcetimes.com/story/m...rone/29519917/


Regards,


Paul
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  #30  
Old 24th November 2015, 15:52
Brian Brian is offline
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Re: Just how would you defeat ISIS?

Hi Paul

I was aware, but none of those were Russian!!

Doom & gloom!

Brian
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