British black out serial numbers

[Stig Jarlevik]

Hi Guys

The idea with black out s/ns was (and is) in my mind a very clever idea.
This is perhaps a silly question, but did the British at any time either during or after (by documents or
interrogation) find that the Germans actually "bought it", and believed the British aircraft production
actually was higher than in reality?

Cheers
Stig

[Stig Jarlevik]

Since nobody raised to the occasion my own thoughts are:

The Germans didn't have a clue....
I also doubt the British (or Americans) found out that the Germans began to operate with the same thinking.

The Americans never bothered about it.
Both the AAF and Navy went straight ahead with their production vs s/n.

Seems the Italians never bothered about it either, while the Japanese used their own "hiding system".

Of course gaps occurred but that was due to canceled batches.

Cheers
Stig

[edwest2]

The Germans didn't have a clue? And what is that based on?

Me 262s with with 100 XXX serials followed by 500 XXX serials. Did the British or Americans think Me 262 production had taken a massive leap?

[MW Giles]

If you collect serial numbers of the aircraft you bring down then statistically you can use them to estimate the production of your enemy.

A blackout block or two is going to mean that you overestimate enemy production by a few %. Will you win or lose as a result, probably not.

But with no real effort those little blocks of nothing sow a bit of confusion on the other side. What is not to like?

Germany started to do the same thing later in the war: imitation is the sincerest form of flattery

Martin

[Stig Jarlevik]

Originally Posted by edwest2

The Germans didn't have a clue? And what is that based on?

Ed

Please read my initial posting! What I say is an answer to my own question.

....and yes the Germans came up with their scheme to "fool the enemy", which I also say in my second item above.

All sides must have used all means to estimate the enemy's war production efforts. That was one
reason why RAF didn't allow the manufacturers to use their own c/ns anywhere on the aircraft.
With their varied black out ranges they of course hoped to fool the Germans.

However, as I say, I don't think the Germans ever found out.

Anyone who have wartime estimates of production figures by "the enemy"?

Cheers
Stig

[edNorth]

I need to sadden you. Of course the Germans knew, and made own efforts to conceal actual numbers, where made and so forth. Changes made to manufacturing plates are documented and are the reason for use of older ammunition codes for aircraft factories as well. Lots of estimates and references to Allied Production figures are found in BAMA files. But as "all" (plural) is known on them of no use to us, todays Historians (You know them that still do Research with captal R).
As researcher of both sides, I confirm.

[Stig Jarlevik]

Ahh Eggert, just my man!
Always good to hear your opinion!

So the German know or did they just suspect?
Any particular statement made so we know they actually knew?

There is a certain logic to go down the suspicion road since the Germans followed the same road, but it does not
necessarily mean they actually knew!

I can buy they suspected (no one, which ever side they are on, are idiots) but not quite the fact they knew....

Cheers
Stig