South Ossetian conflict

[Michal]

Well, just few of my notes:

1. Russia don´t have right to attack independent Territory of Georgia according to international law. Russia don´t have right to support separatists in South Osetia and Abkhazia.
2. This Russian move is in close connection to proclamation of idependency of Kosova. NATO and EU made a big fault to recognize Independent Kosova. Russia opposed this political step. Russia thinks when we didn´t have word in question of Kosova, nobody has right to say us what we should do in our "sphere of influence". Be aware of European addiction of gas and oil from Russia. EU is such crazy model of modern state, European Policy is ununderstable for me.
3. What wanted Saakashvili to do? In my opinion he was very afraid of possible attack of separatists from Abkhazia and South Osetia with strong Russian Support. He decided the best way is provoke to Russia to military action on territory of independent Georgia. Future will show it.
4. Russians are first of all nostalgic for their imperial times. Putin gave them some kind of believe that Russia is still strong power (economicaly, military). Personally I won´t believe Russia Government anytime. Forty years after "liberation of Czechoslovakia from terorists" they are once again fight to "terrorists" on the territory of independent state. Don´t forgot that Russia attacked by air Georgian Territory many times from beginning of 1st Chechen War in 1994. May be not many, but hundred times. 5. NATO wanted to develope "sphere of influence" to Ukraine and Georgia (in my opinion only because of rich sources of oil and gas in Black Sea and not for human rights or support of independence and weak post-Soviet states). But NATO won´t want to has some military conflict with Russia. And - I am not sure - in my opinion NATO and Russia has some secret agreements about sphere of influence as final step of agreements about Kosova. So, nor NATO nor European nor International Community will help to Georgia. Only diplomatic discussions which will lead to nothing. At the end International Community will deploy hundreds of "Peace-keep" Forces and Military Observators in Georgia. I can not understand how Russian Forces can be in Abkhazia and South Osetian as "peace-keepers".
6. It is question if Saakashvili will be satisfied. International Community will say that Russia acted against international rules. But on the other hand, all world will have close commercial contacts with Russia. Result: nothing. On the other hand deployment of "international peace-keepers" would be at the end probably for support of Georgian Suverenity. And of course - there are some doubts if it is not one step to support Saakashvili´s Presidency. His popularity decreased before this war. Of course, particulary because of strong involvment of Russian Secret Services in Georgian Affairs.

Once again one stupid war.

Michal